Jonathan Rao

As the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its third week, there is no sign of its end.
Despite three meetings between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, no substantial breakthrough has been made as bloodshed and human displacement continue. The effect of the war has already shown itself in rising commodity prices globally, especially crude oil and wheat, and there have been logistical disruptions. A gigantic human crisis resulting in the displacement of around two million people from Ukraine is putting pressure on neighboring counties.

India, being the largest democracy in the world, is preoccupied with the stakes of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He is close to both Russia and Ukraine and, as a sympathizer, believes that any dispute between two sovereign nations should be resolved through dialogue rather than war. The Indian Prime Minister held talks with the leaders of the two belligerent countries as well as with neighboring countries such as Hungary. India’s response to the war and the resulting abstention from voting on the UN resolution could be seen as a responsible, neutral and humane stance on the issue. India has made it a point of honor for leaders of warring nations to create a humane corridor for civilians to walk away from war-torn regions with its own students in Ukraine. India has also sent a very strong message as a responsible nation by facilitating students from neighboring Pakistan and Nepal.

India, as the fastest growing economy in the world, is concerned about the economic implications of the war on the global economy, especially Russia, Ukraine and Europe with which India has deep ties. Disruptions to the global commodity supply chain, particularly crude oil, gas and wheat, would not bode well for the nascent global economic recovery from COVID-19. India believes that the two warring countries which share a long common history and culture should open their doors for fruitful dialogue.

Unlike others, India has not taken sides or fallen into the blame game. Although many Western countries accuse Russia of invading a sovereign nation, China in its statements has accused NATO of instigating the Russian-Ukrainian war. The blame game often reduces the chances of finding a solution to a problem. It is obvious that under Russia-Ukraine there is an undeniable semblance of war for hegemony between the superpowers which refreshes the memory of the Cold War.

It is necessary to appreciate Russian concern over the presence of NATO forces in its backyard, but nothing can justify a war. India understands Russia’s concerns, but does not approve of violent methods of resolving issues. The efforts of the United States and its NATO partners to contain a superpower like Russia, even indirectly, alleging that it is an arrogant, autocratic and irresponsible power would only lead to a vicious circle of arguments and counter-arguments and vitiate the situation.

Indications have been given by China, Israel and Turkey for interim talks between the two belligerent countries. But these countries do not command as much confidence as the mediators. While China remains aligned with Russia, however, tacitly Turkey is known to have played both sides – Russia and Western allies.
For Israel, it will be very difficult to prove that it is neutral between Russia and the United States, as it has long been an ally of the latter, especially in the context of geopolitics in the Middle East.

The global economy, which was showing “green shoots” of economic recovery after the recessionary impact of the Covid pandemic, is once again under threat. India fears that the ripple effects of a war of this magnitude, if continued, could undermine the world’s efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

The series of sanctions, including debarment from SWIFT, imposed on Russia would not have economic implications for Russia alone, but for all countries, including those in the EU that have close ties with the Russia. Although the sanctions would significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to receive payments for exports and imports and cripple cross-border financial transactions, Russia’s major trading partners, including European countries, would also face difficulties in paying Russian oil and gas imports.

The US President’s recent speech that people should be prepared to pay the price for the cause of democracy as global commodity prices, including crude oil and wheat, hit new highs, is not very reassuring to solve the problem. Inflationary pressure would make life difficult for poor households around the world.

Many Asian economies, including India, import a large part of their energy needs and a sharp spike in crude prices would put immense pressure on their balance of payments. Importantly, as the Indian economy is being treated as a driver of the global economic recovery post Covid, such a spike would weigh heavily on growth and price stability. Nor can China afford to rejoice as the silent winner of Russia’s challenge to the United States and its allies in the game of hegemony. Due to its strategic location, Ukraine is very important for China as a gateway to Europe and the European Union, the war would affect the supply of minerals and agricultural products in both directions. Ukraine is an important hub within the BRI, which Kyiv joined in 2017. Chinese companies working in Ukraine, including Beinkew Energy, Xinjiang communications Construction Group and Weldatlantic Group, would also experience disruptions to their operations.

*****

As reported yesterday, the US government appears to be declassifying details of Russia’s requests for assistance from China. After revealing this the United States had become aware of Russia’s demands yesterday (the same day that Jake Sullivan had a seven hour meeting with Yang Jiechi) more details about what Russia requested have been published. CNN even reported on a cable shared with allies detailing that Russia had requested ready-to-eat meals – essentially food for its soldiers.

In a diplomatic cable, the United States told its allies in Europe and Asia that China had signaled its willingness to help Russia, which requested military support. The cable did not definitively indicate that assistance had been provided. An official also said the United States had warned in the cable that China would likely deny it was willing to provide assistance.

Among the aid requested by Russia was pre-packaged, non-perishable military food kits, known in the United States as “ready-to-eat meals” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The request underscores fundamental logistical challenges that analysts and military officials say have hampered Russian progress in Ukraine — and raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.

Forward-deployed units regularly outpaced their supply convoys, and open-source reports showed Russian troops breaking into grocery stores in search of food as the invasion progressed. One of the sources suggested that the food could be a demand that China would be willing to meet, as it stops short of lethal aid that would be seen as deeply provocative by the West.

CNN is correct that an MRE request suggests a logistical failure to prepare for this invasion.

But the symbolism is far more alarming (which perhaps explains why it was included in a leaked cable).

As Al Jazeera ratingsRussia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, accounting for 18% of the total, with Ukraine being another big producer.

Sanctions against Russia and Ukrainian farmers’ emphasis on tank capture will have a significant impact on global wheat markets – although one of the main impacts will be that Russia will send wheat to China instead of Egypt and Turkey.

Meanwhile, Ukraine exported over $3 billion cereals and other agricultural products to China in 2020.

Unless Russia leaves Ukraine today, most of these exports will not be delivered this year.

On top of all the other things Russia did by invading Ukraine, it created the conditions for food insecurity around the world – the kind of food insecurity that big countries like China can ill afford. .

This is also going to happen, as the COVID shutdowns in China are poised to cause more supply chain crises around the world.

At a time when Russia is destabilizing both Europe and much of the world (in part because a key food producer will harvest tanks and cluster bombs instead of grain), Russia has asked China to help him feed his soldiers.

PANDESAL forum moderator Wilson Lee Flores texts me: “Gud pm. Hi, China’s top journalist will be interviewing you this Thursday noon to noon at the Kamuning Bakery Café. Topics on the Ukraine crisis and its impact on the Asia…” The subject was dear to my heart, as evidenced by my two columns from last week: “Pushed against the wall, did Putin have any other choice? So while I limited my attendance at the regular event, being picky about what to discuss, I thought Wilson’s invitation was worth attending.

Turns out the main course of the day was a breakdown of election campaign pleas from some leftists I wouldn’t touch with a 10ft pole again – the Gabriela party slate, for example, having been exposed by the Group of national work to end Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac) Vice President Hermogenes Esperon Jr. as a legal front organization of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army funded from abroad and therefore a no-no for that the Electoral Commission (Comelec) was accredited as a candidate but, for some rather dubious reason, had nevertheless been qualified for the election. Thus, the accreditation of Gabriela on the party list can only explain what people generally perceive as great corruption within Comelec. For this reason, I have this personal crusade underway to abolish Comelec, since I do so, no good elected official can come out of an electoral process that is bad.

Anyway, I did not come to the forum for this agenda, but to share the discussion on the Ukrainian crisis with Chinese journalists and members of a newly formed think tank, Philippine Asian Century Strategic Studies Inc. (Phil-Acssi), Herman Tiu Laurel, Anna Malindog-Uy and Ado Paglinawan.

Much of what reaches the country about the war in Ukraine comes from the Western media and therefore must advance the concerns of Western powers. There is nothing wrong with that. Charity begins at home, as they say. What’s wrong is when we take the hook, line and sinker of Western media, so to speak. In this case, we behave as one with the West, which we are not.

As I pointed out in my last two columns, the war in Ukraine is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia and the United States and the tandem of NATO, with the Ukraine only as a battlefield. It is the encirclement of the United States and NATO over the past two decades that has troubled Russia and Ukraine’s application for NATO membership must strike Russia as the only remaining move to its ultimate conquest by Western powers. What was there to do for Russia but strike or perish?

As various interviews show, Russian President Vladimir Putin did his best to avoid a confrontation with the United States and NATO. As early as 2020, he indeed offered to apply to join the alliance, but the offer was rejected. So from that moment he said, “If you can’t accept our covenant, don’t make enemies of us. The problem is that the United States and NATO surrounded Russia, gaining the alliance of neighboring countries, Romania, Poland, the Baltic States, until Ukraine offered to complete the maneuver of the Western pincers by asking for NATO membership. In addition to this maneuver, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty (INFT), which would allow it to deploy nuclear weapons anywhere in NATO countries; if Ukraine turns to NATO, the United States could position nuclear missiles capable of hitting Russia in 7-10 minutes, and in the case of hypersonic missiles, 5.

“We have made it very clear that NATO’s further eastward expansion is unacceptable,” Putin said in an interview. So, realizing that Ukraine’s membership would allow NATO to complete this expansion, what can Putin do but hit Ukraine first? This is a basic move in warfare.

Most analysts overlook this attitude of Putin as a necessary given in the Ukrainian crisis. All they see is a war waged by a powerful country against a weak country. They gobble up Western media histrionism by portraying Ukrainian civilians pitting bare physical guts against Russian armed troops and armored vehicles. First of all, where is the Ukrainian army in this regard? Why does he allow Ukrainian civilians to bear the brunt of the battles for them? And why does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tolerate this act which smacks more of cinema than science of war. You are attacked by columns upon columns of Russian troops, why send civilians to fight them? Western media proliferates with, say, motherhood under attack. It’s part of the story. The other part, mostly untold, is that Ukrainian troops, fighting the attacking Russian forces, take up firing positions in the hospital. So what do you expect Russian soldiers to do, not retaliate even if they get shot? It’s the war. The first act of a country’s military is to ensure the safety of its civilians. Judging by Western media accounts, in Ukraine the first act of the army seems to be hiding behind civilians. And when civilians are affected, do you mourn war crimes?

President Putin had posed the question very clearly: “I am addressing the Ukrainian military. Do not let the neo-Nazis, these banderites (Ukrainian nationalists) use your children, your wives and your old people as human shields. It will then be easier for us to reconcile with you than with a band of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who have settled in Kiev (Kyiv) and have taken the entire Ukrainian people hostage.

One of the facts of the Ukrainian crisis is President Putin’s passionate determination to bring this war to, in his words, a “logical end”. Here is a man born and raised during the rise and fall of the once mighty Russian Empire. Now that he finds himself at the helm of this reborn empire and once again entrenched in a dominant position in the world order, he is not ready to once again give up his newfound glory. If Ukraine must be recaptured to safeguard that empire’s protection against the insatiable Western lust for world domination, then let war settle the matter.

How could Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky live up to this magnificent Putin obsession? The best he seems able to do is hole up in his dungeon and endlessly complain about NATO’s inaction in the face of his desperate call for the imposition of a no-fly zone over of Ukraine to prevent Russian bombardment. Clearly, in pushing Ukraine to join, NATO had only been assessing Russia’s ultimate ability to repel its continuing aggression since the partition of the vast territory of the Soviet Union into 1991. With Russia responding resolutely now with what is effectively a war of self-defense, NATO realizes that it cannot afford a frontal confrontation and therefore must leave Ukraine to fight Russia alone.

In view of the facts, the United States and NATO are showing themselves to be faithful to their word not to engage Russia militarily in Ukraine. All the United States and NATO are prepared to do is impose economic sanctions which, in any event, infuriates Putin even more, retaliating with growing determination to take on Ukraine once for all. Zelenskyy’s oft-repeated statement to fight to the last Ukrainian is purely theatrical. He would do his best for his nation and his people by shedding his illusory cinematic pretensions and executing his only remaining honorable recourse, as did Emperor Hirohito who, in 1945, after America’s atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki which razed the cities and killed some 200,000 Japanese and wounded many more, went on the radio announcing Japan’s final surrender in World War II:

“Furthermore, the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, causing many innocent victims. If we continue to fight, it will only result not only an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also that would lead to the total extinction of human civilization.”

The key for Zelenskyy to end the war is, in the previous quote, to substitute “Ukraine” for “Japanese nation”. Putin had made a sincere offer to settle the problems with the Ukrainian army. First of all, wasn’t Ukraine once part of Russia?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing a 9/11-scale paradigm shift in how democracy will deal with future threats, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will predict in Washington on Thursday.

She will call on the West to oppose authoritarian regimes, saying the West must stand up at this time and commit to never allow such aggression to grow unchecked as it has over the past decade.

In previous remarks, she qualified her attacks on authoritarian regimes by saying that some regimes that have no intention of undermining the West may be treated differently. No. 10, pressed on Wednesday to find out whether he considered Saudi Arabia to be an authoritarian regime, hesitated.

In his address to the Atlantic Council, Truss said: “Putin launched a frontal attack not only against the people of Ukraine, but also against the very foundation of our societies and the rules by which we coexist – sovereignty, democracy, the UN Charter.

“He broke the global security architecture. The invasion of Ukraine is a paradigm shift on the scale of 9/11. How we respond today will set the pattern for this new era.

“Leaving Putin’s expansionism unchallenged would send a dangerous message to potential aggressors and authoritarians around the world. We cannot allow this to happen.

“We have to start from the principle that the only thing the aggressors understand is force…and we have to start by working together to stop Putin’s offensive in Ukraine.”

She will insist: “It means acting now. It means being tough – because we know the costs will only increase if we don’t. The public understands the gravity of this moment. They see the terrible suffering caused by this pre-planned, barbaric and illegal invasion against a European democracy and they recognize that the world has changed.

She will again call for an end to strategic reliance on hostile and authoritarian states, citing the threat posed by Russian energy.

In remarks largely directed at countries most dependent on Russian energy, such as Italy and Germany, she will say: “We need to go deeper into sanctions to keep tightening the noose – including a full ban on Swift, freezing all Russian banking assets.” , and encourage more countries to join the effort.

Germany has pushed for Russian energy-related banks to be kept in the Swift banking system.

Truss will say, “We want a situation where they can’t access their funds, they can’t settle their payments, their commerce can’t flow, their ships can’t dock and their planes can’t land. We must work together to ensure that justice is served at the International Criminal Court and that Putin is held accountable for his actions.

“And we must do more to provide defensive weapons and respond to the growing humanitarian emergency. We will do all of this. And we will shape this new era for global security.

Truss is also expected to deliver a message to the US Congress that the UK is taking action against the Russian oligarchs following growing criticism among US politicians and media that the UK has laid the welcome mat for the oligarchs and has now find it difficult, mainly for legal reasons, to take the strong measures that the EU and the United States have shown.

The UK is in the process of passing legislation that will allow it to sanction anyone under UK jurisdiction as long as they have been sanctioned by the US, Canada or the EU, a decision that is quite a long way off from Brexiters’ initial assertion that a separate UK sanctions regime would make the UK regime more nimble.

Rather, it appears the Foreign Office is concerned that UK law, due to amendments passed by Parliament, may provide too many avenues through which Russian oligarchs can appeal sanctions designations in court.

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Kyiv residents urged to visit bomb shelters

An air alert was declared in and around Kyiv, with residents urged to get to bomb shelters as quickly as possible.

“Kiev region, air alert. Threat of missile attack. Everyone immediately under cover,” regional administration chief Oleksiy Kuleba said on Telegram.

For days, as Moscow’s forces besieged Ukrainian towns, attempts to create corridors to evacuate civilians safely failed amid relentless fighting.

Russian forces have seen their advances halted in some areas, notably around the capital Kyiv, by fiercer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance

Lavrov travels to Turkey for talks with Kuleba

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Turkey where he will meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, TASS news agency quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry as saying.

Evacuation of Sumy in Ukraine continues: governor

A humanitarian corridor out of the beleaguered Ukrainian city of Sumy will continue to operate, regional governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said.

About 5,000 people bussed out of the northeastern city on Tuesday after Moscow and Kyiv agreed on the corridor, he said, and about 1,000 cars were also able to leave, heading to the city of Poltava.

IAEA says it has lost contact with Chernobyl nuclear data systems

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant is no longer transmitting data to the UN’s atomic watchdog, the agency said, expressing concern about personnel working under Russian guard at the Ukrainian facility.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, “reported that the remote transmission of data from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant had been lost,” the agency said in a statement. a statement.

“The Agency is reviewing the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon,” she said.

Pentagon says Polish jet offer to Ukraine ‘unsustainable’

The Pentagon rejected Poland’s surprise announcement that it would give the United States its MiG-29 fighter jets for use in Ukraine.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Poland’s statement that it intended to deliver the 28 jets to the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany raised the worrying prospect that warplanes depart from a US and NATO base to fly in contested airspace with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.

“We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies on this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is tenable,” Kirby said in a statement.

Hungary will not support sanctions against Russia over oil and gas imports: PM

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced that his country is against possible sanctions against Russia which would cover imports of its oil and natural gas.

Orban said Hungary condemned Russia’s launch of a war against Ukraine but would not allow Hungarian families “to be forced to pay the price of war”. Noting that the sanctions imposed on Russia affect all countries in Europe, he said the extension of sanctions to the Russian energy sector will affect Hungary “very seriously”.

Orban said Hungary buys most of its oil and natural gas from Russia and 90% of Hungarian families heat their homes with gas, adding that the Hungarian economy could not function without oil and gas.

Russian central bank limits cash withdrawals abroad

Russia’s central bank said it is limiting the amount of money citizens with foreign currency accounts can withdraw under a “temporary procedure”.

The procedure runs from March 9 to September 9, the bank said in a statement posted on its website.

Account holders can withdraw up to $10,000 in cash, and the rest of the funds must be in rubles at the market rate on the day of issue.

Russia allows Ukrainian civilians to leave major cities

Russian forces will stop firing from 10:00 a.m. Moscow time (0700 GMT) to provide humanitarian corridors for people to leave the capital Kyiv and four other cities, senior Russian officials said.

Meanwhile, the United Nations human rights office said it has verified 1,335 civilian casualties in Ukraine so far, including 474 killed and 861 injured, but the true toll is likely to be higher.

Ukraine says its forces have killed more than 11,000 Russian soldiers.

Russia has confirmed around 500 casualties.

Neither side disclosed any Ukrainian casualties.

Civilian evacuations took place on Tuesday, in particular from the city of Sumy, from where two convoys left during the day.

Evacuations also took place outside the capital Kiev.

But attempts to evacuate the port city of Mariupol have repeatedly failed in recent days, with Kyiv and Moscow blaming the other side for the failures.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president has called for an end to the war with Russia, saying the two countries should hold talks for the good of the people.

“The war must end. We must sit down at the negotiating table – not for outdated murderous ambitions, but for the interests of the people,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message.

Japan may quit Sakhalin energy projects to stop Russian aggression

Japanese Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda has said Tokyo may consider pulling out of “Sakhalin projects”, referring to energy projects on Russia’s Sakhalin island, if it helps stop China’s aggression. Russia versus Ukraine.

Hagiuda made the comment during a parliamentary session.

For Tuesday (March 8) live updates, click here

Source: TRTWorld and agencies

Mr. Erti is a victim of Putin’s version of events. His list of Putin’s litany of griefs and complaints suggests to me that he might get his information from Tucker Carlson, etc., who have softened the American public to Kremlin propaganda for years. Putin longs for the time of a mythical Russian imperial empire. Let’s not forget that the great Imperial Russia, as the USSR, worked with Germany to start World War II. He colluded with Hitler to invade Poland – part of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, not Russia.

Let’s not forget that Ukraine, the land of the Cossacks, where the Nazis slaughtered 30,000 Jews in Kiev for two days and threw their bodies into the ravine named Babi Yar, was claimed not only by Russia, but also by the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires. According to Mr. Erti’s reasoning, Mexico, seat of the Aztec Empire, has every right to take back Texas and New Mexico.

Yes, the countries bordering Russia are a threat. They look to Europe and struggle to rid themselves of generations of corruption and oppression under Soviet rule. It’s an alluring prospect. This idea launched the United States of America.

Putin cannot have the shiny, shiny gifts of capitalism without the freedom that capitalism demands. Democracies, whether American or European, have a lot of problems, but I’ll take them on authoritarians and kleptocrats, here and abroad. I look forward to the day when the Russian people can live without fear of death or disappearance. There is never an excuse for a war criminal.

Nina Shippen

Brevard

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday reiterated his call for the United States and other countries to pave the way for Soviet-era fighter jets to supplement his military and to impose a no-fly zone over his country, while expressing confidence in President Biden’s ability to do so.

The United States is looking for ways to meet Ukraine’s demand for fighter jets and replenish Poland’s arsenal if it hands over Soviet-era planes to its embattled neighbor.

In an interview, Mr. Zelensky told ABC News via a government interpreter that his country lacked air supremacy, noting the bombardment of civilian infrastructure with Russian missiles. He said he shared that view with Mr. Biden during a call on Monday.

While Mr Biden and other leaders have said creating a no-fly zone would force allies to fire on Russian planes, Mr Zelensky focused on the need to shoot down Russian missiles that , according to him, hit civilian infrastructure.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has rejected requests for a no-fly zone, saying it would risk war with Russia, an outcome that Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened if NATO members enter. the dispute.

He suggested that the question of whether Mr. Putin deliberately targets civilians is irrelevant: “Why should I care? The result is the same.”

Russia would not stop at Ukraine, he warned, but would continue to threaten other democratic countries.

“We are a place in Europe, a place of freedom, a zone of freedom,” he said. “When the limits of rights and freedoms are violated and trampled on, then you must protect us. Because we’ll come first, you’ll come second.

He confirmed reports that he had been offered safe passage out of the country if the situation deteriorated further, but said he would stay, noting that he is Ukraine’s democratically elected leader.

“I’m sure Ukrainians are ready to face Russia all their lives,” he said, noting the civilians who fought back against Russian forces.

“We are going to endure, and even if they come to all our cities, there will be an insurrection, an insurrectional war,” he said. “No one will give up our independence.”

Finally, Mr. Zelensky addressed the American public in English, saying that while Americans often talk about freedom, the example of Ukrainians resisting the Russian invasion demonstrated the meaning of freedom.

“We are not far from you,” he said. “If you see and understand how we feel… how we fight all enemies for our freedom, support us.