Jonathan Rao

As the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its third week, there is no sign of its end.
Despite three meetings between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, no substantial breakthrough has been made as bloodshed and human displacement continue. The effect of the war has already shown itself in rising commodity prices globally, especially crude oil and wheat, and there have been logistical disruptions. A gigantic human crisis resulting in the displacement of around two million people from Ukraine is putting pressure on neighboring counties.

India, being the largest democracy in the world, is preoccupied with the stakes of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He is close to both Russia and Ukraine and, as a sympathizer, believes that any dispute between two sovereign nations should be resolved through dialogue rather than war. The Indian Prime Minister held talks with the leaders of the two belligerent countries as well as with neighboring countries such as Hungary. India’s response to the war and the resulting abstention from voting on the UN resolution could be seen as a responsible, neutral and humane stance on the issue. India has made it a point of honor for leaders of warring nations to create a humane corridor for civilians to walk away from war-torn regions with its own students in Ukraine. India has also sent a very strong message as a responsible nation by facilitating students from neighboring Pakistan and Nepal.

India, as the fastest growing economy in the world, is concerned about the economic implications of the war on the global economy, especially Russia, Ukraine and Europe with which India has deep ties. Disruptions to the global commodity supply chain, particularly crude oil, gas and wheat, would not bode well for the nascent global economic recovery from COVID-19. India believes that the two warring countries which share a long common history and culture should open their doors for fruitful dialogue.

Unlike others, India has not taken sides or fallen into the blame game. Although many Western countries accuse Russia of invading a sovereign nation, China in its statements has accused NATO of instigating the Russian-Ukrainian war. The blame game often reduces the chances of finding a solution to a problem. It is obvious that under Russia-Ukraine there is an undeniable semblance of war for hegemony between the superpowers which refreshes the memory of the Cold War.

It is necessary to appreciate Russian concern over the presence of NATO forces in its backyard, but nothing can justify a war. India understands Russia’s concerns, but does not approve of violent methods of resolving issues. The efforts of the United States and its NATO partners to contain a superpower like Russia, even indirectly, alleging that it is an arrogant, autocratic and irresponsible power would only lead to a vicious circle of arguments and counter-arguments and vitiate the situation.

Indications have been given by China, Israel and Turkey for interim talks between the two belligerent countries. But these countries do not command as much confidence as the mediators. While China remains aligned with Russia, however, tacitly Turkey is known to have played both sides – Russia and Western allies.
For Israel, it will be very difficult to prove that it is neutral between Russia and the United States, as it has long been an ally of the latter, especially in the context of geopolitics in the Middle East.

The global economy, which was showing “green shoots” of economic recovery after the recessionary impact of the Covid pandemic, is once again under threat. India fears that the ripple effects of a war of this magnitude, if continued, could undermine the world’s efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

The series of sanctions, including debarment from SWIFT, imposed on Russia would not have economic implications for Russia alone, but for all countries, including those in the EU that have close ties with the Russia. Although the sanctions would significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to receive payments for exports and imports and cripple cross-border financial transactions, Russia’s major trading partners, including European countries, would also face difficulties in paying Russian oil and gas imports.

The US President’s recent speech that people should be prepared to pay the price for the cause of democracy as global commodity prices, including crude oil and wheat, hit new highs, is not very reassuring to solve the problem. Inflationary pressure would make life difficult for poor households around the world.

Many Asian economies, including India, import a large part of their energy needs and a sharp spike in crude prices would put immense pressure on their balance of payments. Importantly, as the Indian economy is being treated as a driver of the global economic recovery post Covid, such a spike would weigh heavily on growth and price stability. Nor can China afford to rejoice as the silent winner of Russia’s challenge to the United States and its allies in the game of hegemony. Due to its strategic location, Ukraine is very important for China as a gateway to Europe and the European Union, the war would affect the supply of minerals and agricultural products in both directions. Ukraine is an important hub within the BRI, which Kyiv joined in 2017. Chinese companies working in Ukraine, including Beinkew Energy, Xinjiang communications Construction Group and Weldatlantic Group, would also experience disruptions to their operations.

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PANDESAL forum moderator Wilson Lee Flores texts me: “Gud pm. Hi, China’s top journalist will be interviewing you this Thursday noon to noon at the Kamuning Bakery Café. Topics on the Ukraine crisis and its impact on the Asia…” The subject was dear to my heart, as evidenced by my two columns from last week: “Pushed against the wall, did Putin have any other choice? So while I limited my attendance at the regular event, being picky about what to discuss, I thought Wilson’s invitation was worth attending.

Turns out the main course of the day was a breakdown of election campaign pleas from some leftists I wouldn’t touch with a 10ft pole again – the Gabriela party slate, for example, having been exposed by the Group of national work to end Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac) Vice President Hermogenes Esperon Jr. as a legal front organization of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army funded from abroad and therefore a no-no for that the Electoral Commission (Comelec) was accredited as a candidate but, for some rather dubious reason, had nevertheless been qualified for the election. Thus, the accreditation of Gabriela on the party list can only explain what people generally perceive as great corruption within Comelec. For this reason, I have this personal crusade underway to abolish Comelec, since I do so, no good elected official can come out of an electoral process that is bad.

Anyway, I did not come to the forum for this agenda, but to share the discussion on the Ukrainian crisis with Chinese journalists and members of a newly formed think tank, Philippine Asian Century Strategic Studies Inc. (Phil-Acssi), Herman Tiu Laurel, Anna Malindog-Uy and Ado Paglinawan.

Much of what reaches the country about the war in Ukraine comes from the Western media and therefore must advance the concerns of Western powers. There is nothing wrong with that. Charity begins at home, as they say. What’s wrong is when we take the hook, line and sinker of Western media, so to speak. In this case, we behave as one with the West, which we are not.

As I pointed out in my last two columns, the war in Ukraine is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia and the United States and the tandem of NATO, with the Ukraine only as a battlefield. It is the encirclement of the United States and NATO over the past two decades that has troubled Russia and Ukraine’s application for NATO membership must strike Russia as the only remaining move to its ultimate conquest by Western powers. What was there to do for Russia but strike or perish?

As various interviews show, Russian President Vladimir Putin did his best to avoid a confrontation with the United States and NATO. As early as 2020, he indeed offered to apply to join the alliance, but the offer was rejected. So from that moment he said, “If you can’t accept our covenant, don’t make enemies of us. The problem is that the United States and NATO surrounded Russia, gaining the alliance of neighboring countries, Romania, Poland, the Baltic States, until Ukraine offered to complete the maneuver of the Western pincers by asking for NATO membership. In addition to this maneuver, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty (INFT), which would allow it to deploy nuclear weapons anywhere in NATO countries; if Ukraine turns to NATO, the United States could position nuclear missiles capable of hitting Russia in 7-10 minutes, and in the case of hypersonic missiles, 5.

“We have made it very clear that NATO’s further eastward expansion is unacceptable,” Putin said in an interview. So, realizing that Ukraine’s membership would allow NATO to complete this expansion, what can Putin do but hit Ukraine first? This is a basic move in warfare.

Most analysts overlook this attitude of Putin as a necessary given in the Ukrainian crisis. All they see is a war waged by a powerful country against a weak country. They gobble up Western media histrionism by portraying Ukrainian civilians pitting bare physical guts against Russian armed troops and armored vehicles. First of all, where is the Ukrainian army in this regard? Why does he allow Ukrainian civilians to bear the brunt of the battles for them? And why does Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tolerate this act which smacks more of cinema than science of war. You are attacked by columns upon columns of Russian troops, why send civilians to fight them? Western media proliferates with, say, motherhood under attack. It’s part of the story. The other part, mostly untold, is that Ukrainian troops, fighting the attacking Russian forces, take up firing positions in the hospital. So what do you expect Russian soldiers to do, not retaliate even if they get shot? It’s the war. The first act of a country’s military is to ensure the safety of its civilians. Judging by Western media accounts, in Ukraine the first act of the army seems to be hiding behind civilians. And when civilians are affected, do you mourn war crimes?

President Putin had posed the question very clearly: “I am addressing the Ukrainian military. Do not let the neo-Nazis, these banderites (Ukrainian nationalists) use your children, your wives and your old people as human shields. It will then be easier for us to reconcile with you than with a band of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who have settled in Kiev (Kyiv) and have taken the entire Ukrainian people hostage.

One of the facts of the Ukrainian crisis is President Putin’s passionate determination to bring this war to, in his words, a “logical end”. Here is a man born and raised during the rise and fall of the once mighty Russian Empire. Now that he finds himself at the helm of this reborn empire and once again entrenched in a dominant position in the world order, he is not ready to once again give up his newfound glory. If Ukraine must be recaptured to safeguard that empire’s protection against the insatiable Western lust for world domination, then let war settle the matter.

How could Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky live up to this magnificent Putin obsession? The best he seems able to do is hole up in his dungeon and endlessly complain about NATO’s inaction in the face of his desperate call for the imposition of a no-fly zone over of Ukraine to prevent Russian bombardment. Clearly, in pushing Ukraine to join, NATO had only been assessing Russia’s ultimate ability to repel its continuing aggression since the partition of the vast territory of the Soviet Union into 1991. With Russia responding resolutely now with what is effectively a war of self-defense, NATO realizes that it cannot afford a frontal confrontation and therefore must leave Ukraine to fight Russia alone.

In view of the facts, the United States and NATO are showing themselves to be faithful to their word not to engage Russia militarily in Ukraine. All the United States and NATO are prepared to do is impose economic sanctions which, in any event, infuriates Putin even more, retaliating with growing determination to take on Ukraine once for all. Zelenskyy’s oft-repeated statement to fight to the last Ukrainian is purely theatrical. He would do his best for his nation and his people by shedding his illusory cinematic pretensions and executing his only remaining honorable recourse, as did Emperor Hirohito who, in 1945, after America’s atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki which razed the cities and killed some 200,000 Japanese and wounded many more, went on the radio announcing Japan’s final surrender in World War II:

“Furthermore, the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, causing many innocent victims. If we continue to fight, it will only result not only an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also that would lead to the total extinction of human civilization.”

The key for Zelenskyy to end the war is, in the previous quote, to substitute “Ukraine” for “Japanese nation”. Putin had made a sincere offer to settle the problems with the Ukrainian army. First of all, wasn’t Ukraine once part of Russia?

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Kyiv residents urged to visit bomb shelters

An air alert was declared in and around Kyiv, with residents urged to get to bomb shelters as quickly as possible.

“Kiev region, air alert. Threat of missile attack. Everyone immediately under cover,” regional administration chief Oleksiy Kuleba said on Telegram.

For days, as Moscow’s forces besieged Ukrainian towns, attempts to create corridors to evacuate civilians safely failed amid relentless fighting.

Russian forces have seen their advances halted in some areas, notably around the capital Kyiv, by fiercer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance

Lavrov travels to Turkey for talks with Kuleba

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Turkey where he will meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, TASS news agency quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry as saying.

Evacuation of Sumy in Ukraine continues: governor

A humanitarian corridor out of the beleaguered Ukrainian city of Sumy will continue to operate, regional governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said.

About 5,000 people bussed out of the northeastern city on Tuesday after Moscow and Kyiv agreed on the corridor, he said, and about 1,000 cars were also able to leave, heading to the city of Poltava.

IAEA says it has lost contact with Chernobyl nuclear data systems

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant is no longer transmitting data to the UN’s atomic watchdog, the agency said, expressing concern about personnel working under Russian guard at the Ukrainian facility.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, “reported that the remote transmission of data from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant had been lost,” the agency said in a statement. a statement.

“The Agency is reviewing the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon,” she said.

Pentagon says Polish jet offer to Ukraine ‘unsustainable’

The Pentagon rejected Poland’s surprise announcement that it would give the United States its MiG-29 fighter jets for use in Ukraine.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Poland’s statement that it intended to deliver the 28 jets to the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany raised the worrying prospect that warplanes depart from a US and NATO base to fly in contested airspace with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.

“We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies on this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is tenable,” Kirby said in a statement.

Hungary will not support sanctions against Russia over oil and gas imports: PM

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced that his country is against possible sanctions against Russia which would cover imports of its oil and natural gas.

Orban said Hungary condemned Russia’s launch of a war against Ukraine but would not allow Hungarian families “to be forced to pay the price of war”. Noting that the sanctions imposed on Russia affect all countries in Europe, he said the extension of sanctions to the Russian energy sector will affect Hungary “very seriously”.

Orban said Hungary buys most of its oil and natural gas from Russia and 90% of Hungarian families heat their homes with gas, adding that the Hungarian economy could not function without oil and gas.

Russian central bank limits cash withdrawals abroad

Russia’s central bank said it is limiting the amount of money citizens with foreign currency accounts can withdraw under a “temporary procedure”.

The procedure runs from March 9 to September 9, the bank said in a statement posted on its website.

Account holders can withdraw up to $10,000 in cash, and the rest of the funds must be in rubles at the market rate on the day of issue.

Russia allows Ukrainian civilians to leave major cities

Russian forces will stop firing from 10:00 a.m. Moscow time (0700 GMT) to provide humanitarian corridors for people to leave the capital Kyiv and four other cities, senior Russian officials said.

Meanwhile, the United Nations human rights office said it has verified 1,335 civilian casualties in Ukraine so far, including 474 killed and 861 injured, but the true toll is likely to be higher.

Ukraine says its forces have killed more than 11,000 Russian soldiers.

Russia has confirmed around 500 casualties.

Neither side disclosed any Ukrainian casualties.

Civilian evacuations took place on Tuesday, in particular from the city of Sumy, from where two convoys left during the day.

Evacuations also took place outside the capital Kiev.

But attempts to evacuate the port city of Mariupol have repeatedly failed in recent days, with Kyiv and Moscow blaming the other side for the failures.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president has called for an end to the war with Russia, saying the two countries should hold talks for the good of the people.

“The war must end. We must sit down at the negotiating table – not for outdated murderous ambitions, but for the interests of the people,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message.

Japan may quit Sakhalin energy projects to stop Russian aggression

Japanese Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda has said Tokyo may consider pulling out of “Sakhalin projects”, referring to energy projects on Russia’s Sakhalin island, if it helps stop China’s aggression. Russia versus Ukraine.

Hagiuda made the comment during a parliamentary session.

For Tuesday (March 8) live updates, click here

Source: TRTWorld and agencies

The meeting comes at a critical time in the war, as Russian forces encircle major cities and Ukraine reels in a humanitarian crisis. Russian and Ukrainian diplomats are continuing bilateral talks, but several diplomatic overtures by third parties, including efforts by French President Emmanuel Macron, have stalled.

Israel is in a unique position to potentially barter a deal, or at least send messages between Western allies Russia and Ukraine, given its alliance with the United States, its quiet cooperation with Russia in Syria and its shared cultural ties with Ukraine. Mr. Bennett and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are the only two Jews in the world to head national governments.

Mr. Bennett’s office said in a statement on Saturday evening that the meeting with Mr. Putin lasted about three hours and took place “in coordination and with the blessing of the US administration”. In addition, the statement added, Mr. Bennett was working in coordination with Germany and France and was “in permanent dialogue with Ukraine”.

There was no immediate information on the results of the meeting. A spokeswoman for Mr. Bennett said he spoke with Mr. Zelensky after his meeting with Mr. Putin.

The Israeli government has tried to maintain good relations with Russian and Ukrainian leaders during the current crisis, and Mr. Bennett had previously been invited by Mr. Zelensky to mediate between the parties.

Mr Bennett left Moscow on Saturday evening to travel to Berlin to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Mr. Scholz was in Israel for a short visit this week and, in a meeting with Mr. Bennett, discussed Israel’s possible role in mediating between Russia and Ukraine.

Mr. Bennett had spoken by phone with Mr. Putin on Wednesday, hours after speaking with Mr. Zelensky, the latest of a few rounds of phone conversations between them.

In a sign of the mission’s urgency, Mr. Bennett, an observant Jew, left Israel Saturday morning over the Sabbath, breaking the religious injunction banning travel. According to Jewish religious law, the sanctity of the Sabbath is superseded by the principle of preservation of human life.

Mr. Bennett was accompanied by Zeev Elkin, Israel’s housing minister, who helped with the translation, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. Mr. Elkin has frequently acted in a similar capacity over the past decade in meetings between Mr. Bennett’s predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Mr. Putin.

Mr. Elkin, who is also an observant Jew, was born in Kharkiv, Ukraine, in 1971, when it was part of the Soviet Union, and emigrated to Israel in 1990. Mr. Elkin has a brother who still lives with his family in Kharkiv, where Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting for control.

The Israeli delegation also included the prime minister’s national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, his diplomatic adviser, Shimrit Meir, and his spokesperson, Matan Sidi.

Mr Bennett had faced criticism in recent days, including from Mr Zelensky, for not taking the more vocal side of Ukraine and for refraining from supplying him with material military.

Israeli officials have said Israel must maintain good relations with Russia so that it can continue Israel’s military campaign against entrenching Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, where Russia maintains a significant presence.

They said Israel was also concerned about large Jewish communities in Russia and Ukraine. After Saturday’s meeting at the Kremlin, Mr. Bennett’s office said he also spoke with Mr. Putin about the situation of Israelis and Jewish communities following the conflict in Ukraine.

Saturday’s meeting comes after several requests by Mr. Zelensky, to both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Bennett, to mediate between him and Mr. Putin. The latest request was made in a telephone conversation held on February 25, during which Mr. Zelensky also asked for military equipment. While refusing to send defensive equipment, Mr Bennett agreed to try to mediate between the countries.

Several rounds of phone conversations followed between Mr. Bennett and Mr. Putin, between Mr. Bennett and Mr. Zelensky, and between officials in their teams. Israeli officials believe Israeli mediation had some effect in getting Ukraine to agree to start talks with Russia in Belarus.

Mr. Hulata, Israel’s national security adviser, briefed the White House National Security Council on developments since the telephone conversation with Mr. Zelensky.

Israeli officials said the Kremlin meeting also touched on the progress of talks in Vienna for a return to a nuclear deal with Iran, and Mr Bennett voiced Israel’s opposition to a return to the nuclear deal. ‘OK.

A scout speaks to a group of women and children as they arrive at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland, Saturday, March 5, 2022, after fleeing Ukraine. PA

Fed up with Putin’s government, the Russian citizen left her native country six years ago and moved to Ukraine, where she helped raise funds for women and children whose homes had been destroyed during the years of fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass. Region.

Then, this week, she was on the move again – fleeing her adopted city of Kiev from Putin’s invaders.

“It looks like I’m a double refugee now because I fled Russia first because I was against Putin,” said Olena, who spoke on the condition that she be identified only by her name. first name for fear of reprisals against her or her family. “I fled Russia, then Russia came to Ukraine.”

Olena and five colleagues left Kiev after three nights in an air-raid shelter, the thuds of explosions echoing. They arrived in Hungary on Thursday after a harrowing three-day flight.

Sitting on a train in the Hungarian border town of Zahony before departing for the capital Budapest, Olena said she had taken part in anti-Putin protests in Russia but realized that “Putin will reign as long as that he will live”. I chose to vote with my legs and leave.”

She moved to Ukraine, she said, because she was inspired by the 2014 Maidan revolution, when sustained protests forced the ousting of Moscow-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

“As long as Putin is in power, I will never come back,” she said.

But now Ukraine was no longer an option, either for her or for the hundreds of other refugees who boarded the train for the five-hour journey from the border to Budapest. Dozens of volunteers welcomed them, providing food, transport and accommodation.

Olena was grateful to be in friendly territory, but the future seemed uncertain. “I don’t have a home, I don’t know what I’m going to do. I just have to hope,” she said.

She lost access to her money after Ukraine blocked the bank accounts of Russian citizens, fearing they could be used to fund Russia’s assault on the country.

“I understand their reasons, because they are afraid that the Russians will use this money to fight. But I am only a civilian. I just lost all my income, I lost all my source of money and I lost my bank account, just because of this Russian passport,” she said.

This passport, she said, caused her problems on the trip from Kiev. Some Ukrainians expressed their hostility, associating it with the enemy.

But she stressed that many Russians at home and abroad oppose the war, and she hopes “people will separate the government from ordinary people who don’t want to fight.”

“Ukrainians are like a brother people,” she said. “We can’t fight each other. Putin is the real enemy. When Putin came to power, I didn’t like him but I didn’t realize the full extent of his madness.”

On Thursday, Olena and her colleagues secured accommodation in a leafy suburb of Budapest. It’s a welcome respite.

“We no longer hear explosions. We no longer hear sirens every couple of hours when we have to pack our bags and rush to the air-raid shelter,” she said. “When we crossed the border, it was such a relief that we are alive and we are safe.”

Short link:

With the exception of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, Latin America has turned its back on Russia on the invasion of ukrainebut Moscow can keep an ace up its sleeve and surprise with a “symbolic” provocation in the region to challenge United States.

Lately, even as the drums of war beat in Ukraine, Russia has been on a frenzy diplomatic deployment in Latin Americaarea of ​​influence of the United States, in search of allies.

Last week, the Russian President, Vladimir Poutine, received his counterpart Brazilian, Jair Bolsonaroin Moscow, where he had previously met the Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, who even proposed to his country to be a “gateway to Latin America”.

(Due to the public interest in the events between Russia and Ukraine, all of our coverage of this invasion and related actions will be freely available to all EL TIEMPO readers)

(Also read: Ukraine reports increased radiation at Chernobyl after Russians arrive)

But as soon as the tanks arrived in Ukraine on Thursday, both rejected the use of armed force, as have most countries in the region.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, isn’t surprised. “The trade relationship with Russia is very limited and the risk of aligning with it is not worth it,” he told AFP.

Putin has three allies in the region – Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua – who have positioned themselves by his side more than anything “for ideological and transactional interests”, he underlines. Christopher Sabatini, researcher at the Chatham House think tank.

On the very day of the start of the invasion of Ukraine, an official Russian delegation, led by the Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament, Viacheslav Volodin, arrived in Nicaragua to meet the President Daniel Ortegawho a week earlier had discussed economic and military issues with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.

‘Barking dog, little biter’

Russia, which a month ago threatened military deployment in Cuba and Venezuelaseeks to strengthen “his friendships to show that he is not isolated internationally and complicate the strategic position of the United States by projecting a threat in the region”, he explains. Evan Ellis, Professor of Latin American Studies at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the US Army War College.

that he Kremlin doing “something symbolic is very likely” because he’s said it many times, Ellis says. But “a barking dog, not very biting”, nevertheless specifies the expert, who opts for “something improvised, in order to project a threat, more than substantial or well planned”.

“A certain kind of military provocation or the signing of an agreement to show its ability to project itself militarily in the region,” he explains.

The bloody military offensive in Ukraine has imposed a battery of sanctions on Russia to inflict economic damage “both immediate and long-term”, in the words of US President Joe Biden.

(You might be interested in: Fierce street battles in Kiev, under assault by Russian troops)

With an economy under sanctions severely affecting its oil exports and financial system, “Russia is unlikely to have the resources or the logistical capacity to maintain a significant military presence” in the Americas for long, Ellis said.

China on the prowl

In recent years, Latin America has become politically fragmented, which means that “relations not only with Russia, but also with Chinabe more diverse,” says Sabatini. And the new war “will put these new relations to the test”.

The United States, whose relations with Russia and China are at their lowest points, is balancing itself to strengthen ties in the region while fighting corruption in certain countries, notably in Central America, from which waves of immigrants fleeing misery and they seek a better future.

And the rise in wheat prices, which have reached records not seen since 2008, and in oil prices following the war in Ukraine will be particularly sensitive in these developing countries. Central America and the Caribbean.

“For them, the shortage will likely mean a rise in critical import prices and the risk of rising popular discontent,” Sabatini warns.

(Also: Analysis of how this tension between Russia and Ukraine was reached)

Russia will depend more economically on China, which has long-term goals in Latin America, “like replacing the United States as the main economic partner,” Shifter says.

In this war, Beijing “will maintain a fairly neutral position and examine what its rivals are doing”, he adds.

“He will closely monitor developments in this crisis to take advantage of any US weakness to expand his own influence in the region, which needs a lot of economic support.”

AFP

Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DLPR) sparked global outrage and triggered the first tranche of sanctions. Although Russian markets are closed for a public holiday, offshore trading shows continued selling of Russian USD debt.

There was no exchange of local currency OFZ Russian Sovereign Bonds today, but the more liquid $2047 Eurobond sold off again, with yields even higher by 50 basis points near 6.00%. In light of new bans on trading Russian sovereign bonds in the secondary market, for new debt issued from March 1, investors will be watching the performance of OFZs closely when they reopen tomorrow.

Prior to the announcement of the sovereign debt sanction, non-residents held 2.8 tr RUB ($35.3 billion), or about 18% of the overall OFZ market. Russia is currently experiencing the fifth consecutive month of foreign portfolio outflows from OFZ.

the ruble initially took the new sanctions in stride, but remains vulnerable.

Merchandise factored in a fairly large risk premium as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate. This is no surprise, given how powerful Russia is when it comes to raw materials. This is particularly the case for crude oil, natural gas, palladium, platinum, nickel, aluminum and wheat. The fear was that any sanctions from the West could potentially disrupt export flows for these commodities, at a time when a number of these markets are already stretched and trading at multi-year highs.

However, the sanctions announced so far are expected to have little to no impact on most of these commodities. Therefore, it is not surprising that we have seen the markets for oil and certain metals (aluminum and nickel) trading lower from their recent highs. But, given that there are still many uncertainties as to how the situation will develop, we expect the markets to continue to price in a fairly large risk premium, especially as the current tensions on a a number of these markets make them more vulnerable to supply. shocks.

With all eyes on Donbass, a disputed territory on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, recent developments have opened the door to a simultaneous attack on multiple fronts that would include, according to US intelligencethe Ukrainian capital.

Last Friday, Biden publicly affirmed his belief that Putin had already made the decision to invade Ukraine and that his military efforts would be focused on Kyiv. He didn’t say “Donbass”, he said “Kiev”, in what should be understood as a very thoughtful way of measuring words.

So far, the border scrambles point to a scenario similar to that experienced in February and March 2014 with Sevastopol and, subsequently, the entire Crimean peninsula. Undercover agents infiltrate to wreak havoc, so-called autonomous militias form and only come in to finish the job.

Now it works for local invasions. It could be used to join Donetsk, for example, but that doesn’t seem to be what Biden was insinuating with his statements or Boris Johnson when he warned of “the worst war situation since World War II” on Saturday. For that, Putin would have to go straight to Kiev, invade the capital, kick out the government, enter with the tanks and establish a protectorate over the rest of the country without needing, perhaps, to occupy every city along the way.

All this is very difficult to do from the Donbass. US intelligence believes they are already 190,000 soldiers located around Ukraine’s various borders with Russia and Belarus; the majority, in fact, on the eastern frontier. As high as the number may seem, it is not clear whether they could travel the 593 kilometers between Donetsk and the capital unopposed. Ukraine would have time to prepare its defense and stand up. If Putin wants to seize the capital as quickly as possible and thus ward off any attempt to react, it is normal for him to do so from Belarus.

In this sense, the latest news this Sunday is worrying: after finishing the maneuvers with the Belarusian army this weekend, it seems that the thirty thousand soldiers assigned to Baranovichi, just two hundred kilometers from the border with Ukraine, will remain on the ground with the consent of Putin’s puppet and the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko.

If Putin really intends to invade Ukraine in its entirety, he will normally do so from at least three fronts, for which he needs large contingents of troops on all three: Donbass, of course, and the eastern border in general; Belarus, to go in a straight line towards Kiev, and Crimea, to establish a fast connection along the coast of the Black Sea to Odessa.

False Flag War

How to justify an attack of such magnitude is another thing: that same Friday, social networks were filled with videos published by various pro-Russian communication agencies in which alleged attacks by the Ukrainian army were shown (their consequences rather broken glass, falling structures, screaming civilians…) while the separatist leaders of the river basin Donetsk They asked the population to cross the border with Russia to avoid an alleged massacre ordered by the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.

The problem with these videos is that they were fake, recorded, in fact, two days before. We guess there was gunfire in the Donbass on Friday afternoon because even the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrellgave the news for good in statements to Agencia Efe.

However, the extent of these possible shootings or launching of projectiles – qualifying them as “bombardments”, as Borrell did, seems indeed excessive -, remains to be determined in an area which has known a constant civil and military conflict for eight years. .

The international community has taken this series of fake news for what it probably is: the first steps towards a “false flag” war in which a false conflict is created and a military attack is justified to solve what you have. even invented.

There is no evidence that the Ukrainian military is increasing pressure on pro-Russian separatists. On the contrary, the Kiev government itself denounces more than fifty shares militias which would mean a break in the peace agreements signed in Minsk between Russia and Ukraine.

That Vladimir Putin is forcing the situation on Ukraine’s eastern border is obvious. At the time he said the troop withdrawal was about to begin and there is no evidence that this happened either. They are always there, on alert, waiting for orders. during weeks, United States regularly announces the imminence of an attack that does not occur.

Despite the criticism and the wear and tear on public opinion this produces, it may not be a bad idea: by warning of your enemy’s intentions, by trying to anticipate his actions, you are delaying them in a way . Putin not only wants to end the conflict in Ukraine by force, but to convince the world that “he has no other choice”.

Every time Biden or any other NATO member explains how and when this attack is going to happen, they kind of spoil Putin’s narrative. Let’s see how long this situation can last.

The end of the Olympic truce

Although Kiev seems to live in absolute calm, back to work after a pleasant weekend in relatively good weather, the threat of having 30,000 Russian troops two hundred kilometers away – could be even less if Lukashenko allows them to move on Belarusian soil to the border itself – is the most disturbing. It is not even known whether the Belarusian troops could mingle with the Russians and thus increase the contingent. They would never recognize him anyway.

In principle, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to meet his Russian counterpart this week. The place and date have not yet been determined. Blinken even publicly considered the possibility that the invasion begin before the two can meet. One of the hypotheses considered in this last month of conjecture was that Russia wanted to respect the “Olympic truce” as a sign of respect for the Chinese government, organizer of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. These Games ended on Sunday.

Does this mean the attack is imminent? This implies, at the very least, that Russia only needs a spark to blow up the barrel of dynamite. The diplomatic solutions that Zelensky continues to ask for are running out: Blinken asked if the United States would recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and Donbass as an emergency solution to avoid a war, the Secretary of State replied with a ” no” categorically.

Let us remember that, while we Europeans are particularly concerned about the situation in the east of our continent, the United States sees further: recognizing Russia’s sovereignty over independent territories or over that of another country would make its very difficult diplomatic position in the event of an invasion of Taiwan by part of China, which Xi Jinping has been alluding to for more than a year.

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Key to the decision is the country’s inflation rate, which rose to 8.7% in January from 8.4% in December despite the Bank of Russia’s seven rate hikes last year. But the central bank is also aware of the risk of a weaker ruble that would boost inflation if the West imposes sanctions in response to any Russian aggression against Ukraine.

“Short-term pro-inflationary risks associated with global financial market volatility caused by, among other factors, various geopolitical events, have intensified, which could affect exchange rates and inflation expectations,” the bank said. center in a press release.

According to Biden administration officials, potential sanctions could target several of Russia’s largest state-owned banks, such as VTB Bank, and include banning all trading in new issues of Russian sovereign debt and applying controls to the export in key sectors such as advanced microelectronics.

For now, there is no talk of sanctions on oil and natural gas exports or disconnecting Russia from Swift, the backbone infrastructure that facilitates financial transactions between banks around the world, officials said. US officials, but that could change depending on Russian actions.

The Bank of Russia has recent experience of the impact of Western sanctions on the ruble and the country’s financial markets.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, the Obama administration cracked down on some energy technology exports, sovereign debt, and some banks and state-owned enterprises, and these sanctions contributed to a weakening of the ruble. In December of the same year, when the currency was in freefall, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate from 9.5% to 17% in two movements, the second of which was by far the most important.

A weaker currency would push inflation up by raising the prices of imported goods and services, while increasing the ruble cost of repaying debt denominated in US dollars or euros.

However, since this experience, the Russian government has worked to reduce the country’s dependence on US dollar financial flows and Western financial institutions.

There are few signs of the currency collapsing as tensions between Russia and the West over its troop build-up on the Ukrainian border continue. The ruble lost ground against the US dollar in currency markets in the first weeks of the year, but has since stabilized as diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful solution continue. However, the central bank cannot rest easy, economists say.

“The risk of another currency shock still lurks in the background,” wrote Tatiana Orlova, an economist at Oxford Economics, in a note to clients. “Geopolitical tensions are still simmering, although the recent wave of European diplomacy is reducing the risk of a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”

With or without sanctions, the central bank said it may have to raise its key rate further, citing the impact of a tight labor market on wages.

Write to Paul Hannon at [email protected]